I guess the media coverage of COVID-19 isn’t cheerful enough, so let’s look at all the good things that the pandemic is doing for us.
It’s an awesome wake-up call for global warming and the collective action we’ll be forced to take in a few years. Previously I thought we’re doomed, climate change is going to be as destructive and violent as it gets. Now I think maybe not. There’s enough signs of organized action, especially on the east side of the planet, that maybe we can get our act together and deal with disaster. Even Europe is getting its act together. America, well, we’ll get to that.
The virus shows clearly which governments are competent and which aren’t. In Asia, apart from initial denial in China, pretty good. Singapore and Hong Kong are impressive. Whether by authoritarianism or public consent their response is effective. Europe acted late but is shaping up. The UK, despite having the technical expertise is politically floundering. Europe’s response is all at the national level. The EU bureaucracy is structured in an inanely conservative way that prevents any meaningful action.
In America, to my astonishment, they have local government and it seems to be doing the right things. The federal government is spectacularly useless. Is that a surprise? Their job is to make war and to protect capitalism. Aircraft carriers and central banks don’t help here. America is ideologically opposed to caring for people as a whole, but locally there is support and governance. I hope people remember and appreciate which kinds of organization made a difference.
People are staying at home and the economy so far hasn’t collapsed. It will definitely gdown and large fractions of people will face hardship, but it’s holding up remarkably well. Partly this is goodwill. It’s understood that we’re dealing with an external shock and people aren’t accusing each other of being poor because they’re lazy. So far, a pretty good attitude. I’m positively surprised.
Some people haven’t adjusted or are already craving a return to normality. How will children do without school? – they say. We need lessons over the internet. Well, maybe, or we need to re-evaluate school. Do kids nowadays learn through textbooks? Do they need to spend their weekdays getting used to office life? There’s lots of adjusting and re-thinking to do. Some people are bad at grasping how something universal is going to affect them personally.
As we get used to working at home, we may gradually re-evaluate what jobs are valuable and need doing. Delivering food and fixing infrastructure, pretty important. Bureaucratic and marketing jobs, like mine, eh… Maybe because of need we’ll adjust to less paperwork or working fewer hours. Or for white collar jobs prioritise coders, designers, engineers, etc. to managers. Our economies are overweight with too many value extractors at the top. Maybe a destructive shock will rebalance them.
In all likelihood, the market economy will fail in some sectors and a wartime plan to provide resources will be needed. For example airlines are likely to fail and transport may have to be re-established. Healthcare in some places may need to be nationalized. I think for-profit services are a luxury for good times, and when a serious crisis comes they get replaced by a smaller, more efficient, planned system. After the crisis, that infrastructure creates space for the economy to prosper around it. We’ve seen that after WW2, and it was mainly cars and appliances then. This time it may be green investment.
Tourism and travel will be badly hit. Conferences are cancelled and frankly I don’t think they’ll be missed. I like travelling but I’d like it to be different after the crisis. Less hopping between cities for a weekend, more periods of living in a new place for weeks or months. More fractal, local networks. Entertainment too will be badly hit. I hope if anything the inability to go to concerts will make people appreciate artists and support them properly.
As I said, there’s a lot of adjustment to do. Coronavirus is a terrible thing, but the actions that we’re taking, or that most of the world is taking, are for the better. The spirit of cooperation is holding up, resilience is suddenly valued, greed is shown to be ineffective. People will have to re-evaluate what’s important in life and what is frivolous. I hope that we emerge from the crisis a little better as individual people, and a lot better as a human collective.